By Matthew Brooks (@brooksie1219)
The new year has been rung in and the temperature is dropping, which can only mean one thing: the NFL postseason is upon us. 2024 will undoubtedly be an exciting year, there is a lot of parity in both conferences and some interesting storylines set to unfold.
I figure it would be fun to lay out my playoff predictions for Super Wild Card Weekend, make some justifications for my picks, and then probably watch them all fall apart this weekend.
As a bonus at the end I’ll include my entire playoff predictions as of right now, including my pick for Super Bowl champion. But depending on what we see this weekend and beyond, I of course might have to evaluate my deeper round picks as the weeks go on.
Saturday, January 13th:
AFC: No. 5 Cleveland Browns vs No. 4 Houston Texans — 4:30pm ET (NBC, Peacock, Telemundo)
Houston are home underdogs in the playoff opener, but despite the allure of “Playoff Flacco” I have the Texans sneaking away with this one. Rookie quarterback phenom C.J Stroud has taken the league by storm. His 23-5 TD-INT ratio is good for best in the NFL, a title that has never been achieved by a rookie.
Meanwhile the Browns defense, while looking great at home, has been the worst in the NFL on the road. While I anticipate veteran Browns QB Joe Flacco having a decent performance due to his playoff experience, this season and history tells us he’s going to turn the ball over at least once, I have him for 2-3 interceptions. Giving Stroud the ball with a short field at home is simply not going to be a recipe for success for Cleveland.
AFC: No. 6 Miami Dolphins vs No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs —8pm ET (Streaming exclusively on Peacock, for the small price of 110 million dollars)
This is certainly my boldest pick of the wild card round and honestly the entire playoffs, but hear me out.
As of this writing, this game is slated to be held at Arrowhead Stadium. The wind chill will be 15 to 35 degrees below zero for Kansas City all weekend. You could say the conditions are “treacherous” (couldn’t make it through without one Taylor Swift reference). So why does this lead me to take the team of beaches and palm trees against the team of players that live there?
Well, Kansas City has notoriously had some rough receiving issues this year from the top down. Star tight end Travis Kelce has missed the 1,000 yard receiving mark for the first time since 2016. And outside of breakout rookie receiver Rashee Rice, the Chiefs have no one to write home about.
That means this game will be won on the ground. And sparing maybe Baltimore, no one can run it like the Dolphins. They have their running QB in Tua Tagovailoa and an explosive, healthy RB duo. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill will be great for quick short passes, bubble screens, and other safe passing plays. Plus, he knows this weather “All Too Well” from his time in Kansas City (alright I’m done). And I think in a game that is that cold and will have winds around 15-20 mph, weather will compound with the catching issue to create a situation where the Miami defense can play super aggressively and not have to worry about the Mahomes deep ball.
Regardless of who wins, this is shaping up to be a historic matchup and a potential playoff classic.
Sunday January 14th:
AFC: No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers vs No. 2 Buffalo Bills — 1pm ET (CBS)
I think this is the least interesting of the playoff matchups. I don’t even think the Bills are that great, but I am a bigger doubter of the Steelers.
Head coach Mike Tomlin is a legend. But he’s also not on the field. You know who is on the field? Mason Rudolph. And I am just not a believer in him winning a playoff game on the road. Or at all really. I don’t think the Bills are a very dangerous two seed, but the Steelers to me are primed to go down with all of the other 7 seeds.
NFC: No. 7 Green Bay Packers vs No. 2 Dallas Cowboys — 4:30pm ET (FOX)
Dallas has looked infallible outside of a week three fluke loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Dak Prescott has looked like the most talented QB in the league, WR Ceedee Lamb is having the season of a lifetime. Their offense is high octane, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be able to surpass their season average 29.9 points.
I like Jordan Love and this Packers squad, but this is just not the matchup they wanted to draw. I see Love getting some cold feet in a packed AT&T Stadium, and Dallas getting up to an early lead.
NFC: No. 6 Los Angeles Rams vs No. 3 Detroit Lions — 8pm ET (NBC, Peacock, Universo)
“The scriptwriters cooked with this one”.
I mean yeah it’s super cool that Stafford is coming back for the first Detroit playoff game. Ford Field is going to be electric Sunday night.
I really have very few thoughts and analysis about this, other than it’s the tightest game, and with any luck it’ll be a storybook ending. This one is pretty much guaranteed to be a shootout, and it may just come down to who has the ball last. If the football gods are feeling like it, this is another game that could be a Wild Card classic and a franchise defining game for head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions.
Monday, January 15th:
NFC: No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles vs No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 8pm ET (ESPN, ABC)
What do we make of the Philadelphia Eagles right now? Anyone’s guess. They’ve been awful in December, which can happen. But after their completely uninspiring performance against my pitiful New York Giants last week, I just have no evidence to say they’ll turn things around.
The Bucs meanwhile have a Baker Mayfield who is coming off of a 4000 yard season. Baker will be able to put up just enough to get them by Philly, but more importantly the rock solid Tampa defense will do a number on a struggling Philly offense. Expect a lower scoring defensive battle where we may see a slight Eagles bounceback, but not enough to get them out of Tampa.
As promised, here is the aforementioned full playoff bracket. We’ll see how it holds up after what could be a tight Super Wild Card Weekend.
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