Magoo, a sea lion at OdySea Aquarium in Scottsdale, Ariz., predicts the Philadelphie Eagles will win Super Bowl LVII.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are set to face off in Super Bowl LVII in what is sure to be a thrilling matchup. Let’s look at the odds, best prop bets, and a potential daily fantasy lineup with the game a few days away.
ODDS
Without a heavy favorite, betting on Super Bowl 57 may seem intimidating. Hopefully, this article can serve as a guide to help you in your decision-making ahead of Sunday’s game.
The Eagles currently sit as 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs with an over/under score of 50.5 points, according to most major sportsbook sites. This game is one of the most even Super Bowl matchups the league has seen in quite a while, with both teams leading their conference in scoring (546 points each), finishing with a 16-3 record, and six players named All-Pros. While I see this being a close and high-scoring game with teams exchanging leads, I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the spread and head home as champions.
The quarterbacks of these two teams have been in sports headlines all season. Patrick Mahomes went on another great regular season campaign, putting up 5,250 yards on 648 attempts while adding 41 touchdowns after losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in a trade, which prompted many people to expect a regression in his play. Somewhat surprisingly for the Eagles, third-year quarterback Jalen Hurts took an incredible leap this season. When he was healthy, he led the team to a 14-1 record during the regular season, scoring 22 passing and 13 rushing touchdowns. There is a reason these two are favorites to win the Super Bowl MVP; both are playmakers who can blow up games for the opposing team.
That being said, Kansas City has the advantage at quarterback here. Yes, Hurts can run the ball, but Mahomes is a proven superstar with more experience in big games. He had an extra week to rest his ankle and should be able to run when the defense gets to him. Hurts tends to struggle under pressure more than Mahomes, completing just 45% of passes. If the Chiefs’ defense can keep him in the pocket, the Eagles are in trouble. Plus, Mahomes throws a better deep ball; if his offensive line can hold up against the Philadelphia pass rush, he will be hard to stop.
I recognize that Philadelphia’s defense, led by their pass rush, has outplayed Kansas City’s throughout most of the regular and postseason. The Eagles were close to breaking the sack record this season, and their passing defense was ranked first in the league. Both factors could severely limit the Chiefs’ offense if their offensive line can not hold up against pressure to give Mahomes time. However, I don’t think people are giving enough credit to the Chiefs’ defensive play. Kansas City’s rookie-led defense held up in the AFC title game against an explosive Bengals offense, and veteran Chris Jones is a force on the Chiefs’ defensive line.
The defense of both teams feels more unpredictable to me than their offenses; there’s more room for error, and play can vary game by game. On the other side of the ball, both offenses have been relatively consistent throughout the season, and because of that, what it comes down to for this game is which offense you trust more. Yes, the Eagles have stellar wide receivers in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, but the electric on-field connection between Mahomes and Travis Kelce is almost impossible for defenses to slow down. For Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid of the Chiefs, it will be the third time in four years they find themselves in the Super Bowl and experience in big games matters.
If those points weren’t convincing enough, the team wearing white jerseys has won the Super Bowl 15 out of the last 18 years, which could be a good sign for Kansas City.
Many experts are taking the under on this game, but with these two high-powered offenses, I’m taking the over. As previously mentioned, both of these teams led their conferences in points scored. Philadelphia averages 34.5 points per game in the playoffs, including a 31-point victory over a stout San Francisco 49ers defense. The Eagles alone could make up more than half of the point total, which is encouraging for those looking to take the over. While the Chiefs haven’t averaged quite as many points, they are scoring over 20 points per game in the postseason, which brings us over 50.5 based on averages alone. Obviously, averages aren’t the only factor in deciding if you should bet over or under, but the Chiefs’ defense is susceptible to giving up points. Because of that, Kansas City’s offense will need to score often to stay in the game against a high-scoring Eagles team.
BEST PROP BETS
With a game predicted to be this close, you may have better luck betting on player props than the outright winner. Here are three of my favorites:
- Travis Kelce, Over 7.5 Receptions (-160)
- Patrick Mahomes, Under 294.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Miles Sanders, Rushing Leader (+175)
Kelce is averaging over ten receptions in Kansas City’s two postseason games, and with most of their wide receivers dealing with injuries, Mahomes will be sending plenty of targets his way. However, the Eagles pass defense has been stellar, so I’m taking the under on Mahomes’ passing yards. If the Chiefs are going to win this game, they need to balance their attack and run the ball effectively, leaving fewer passing attempts for Mahomes to pick up yards on. Lastly, I’m going with Eagles running back Miles Sanders to lead all players in rushing yards throughout the game. Sanders has been a force running the ball, but his potential has been limited based on the blowout nature of Philadelphia’s postseason games. Since this is the Super Bowl, the Eagles have no reason to limit Sanders’ touches, so I’m picking him to lead all rushers in total yards.
DAILY FANTASY
The high-scoring nature of both offenses in this game should be exciting for daily fantasy players, as there should be plenty of opportunities for points on both sides of the ball.
I can see Philadelphia relying on their ground game in this matchup more than before to keep Mahomes on the sideline for as much time as possible. Sanders is an absolute must, either in the captain position ($11,700) or one of your flex options ($7,800). Kenneth Gainwell is also worth considering as a flex option from the Eagles. He is undoubtedly Philadelphia’s best receiving back, and over the past three games, he has seen an increase in touches, mainly because they were blowouts. Still, Gainwell is a value play at $5,000 and worthy of a flex position against the Kansas City defense that ranked 15th against the run.
You have to have Kelce somewhere in your lineup. Whether you spend more to take him as captain or save and use him at flex, his fantasy floor is incredibly safe, and with the Chiefs’ wide receivers banged up, he should see plenty of targets. Alongside Kelce, I’m taking Jerrick McKinnon as my captain, even though he had an off two games. Kansas City uses him more in pass protection, and with the Eagles’ defense as good as it is, I see McKinnon getting more snaps than rookie Isaiah Pacheco. Additionally, he’s cheaper than Pacheco, with a similar upside, and the $600 difference between the two in the captain spot can be better spent on a flex player. Finally, McKinnon sees the same amount of touches in the red zone as Kelce, and he should be able to get in the endzone against the Eagles’ mediocre run defense.
I’m adding Kadarius Toney and Hurts alongside the previously mentioned players to fill my lineup. Toney told reporters that he is “definitely playing,” and if he is 100% healthy, he brings unique speed and shiftiness to the Chiefs’ offense. His playmaking ability makes him worth the risk for daily fantasy players, especially with the low price tag. Rounding out the lineup, I’m drafting Hurts over Mahomes due to the rushing upside he brings with his arm talent.
My Lineup:
Captain: Jerrick McKinnon ($10,200)
Flex: Jalen Hurts ($11,200)
Flex: Travis Kelce ($10,600)
Flex: Miles Sanders ($7,800)
Flex: Kenneth Gainwell ($5,000)
Flex: Kadarius Toney ($4,400)
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