UFC 294 is a UFC pay-per-view event taking place on October 21st in Abu Dhabi. The fight card is one of, if not the best, cards of the year. 11 days before the card was set to go on, fighters in both the co-main and main event simultaneously pulled out of their fights. Former champion Charles Oliveira, set to face Islam Makhachev, dropped out with a nasty cut above his eye. Former title challenger Paulo Costa, set to face Khamzat Chimaev, pulled out with a brutal and disgusting staph infection in his elbow. In their place, UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman stepped in on 10 day’s notice. There is not another sport where something like this could happen. If either of Usman and Volkanovski win their fight, this will be among the most historic UFC events ever. Odds are as of Thursday night.
Islam Makhachev -300 vs. Alexander Volkanovski +240 (lightweight championship)
Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski first met on February 12, 2023 in Volkanovski’s backyard in Australia. The fight was incredibly competitive, with fans divided on who won. Volkanovski wildly overperformed wrestling and Makhachev wildly overperformed in striking. The fight ended with Makhachev being knocked down by Volkanovski in the 5th round, looking totally terrified as Volkanovski rained down endless punches on his head. Still, Makhachev won by Unanimous Decision. So what’s different for this fight? Volkanovski has taken this fight on short notice and has not been able to train for much of the last two months while recovering from elbow surgery. You can tell Volkanovski has not been training as hard as he usually does because he is significantly fatter than any previous version of him. Volkanovski has never looked tired in any of his fights, but will he be able to push as hard as he did in the last fight, where a tired and scared Makhachev clung on for dear life in the 5th round? I’d argue he can’t since he’s been out too long and will not be able to push as hard as he needs to in that 5th round. Volkanovski seems to agree with this as well, in the lead-up to this fight he has said it is “no secret i’m going straight for the kill… I’m going for an early knockout.” Volkanovski knows he can’t afford to fight any other way on short notice. Perhaps there’s no worse fighter to try and knock out early than Makhachev, who has the best statistical striking defense in UFC lightweight history. It is very improbable that Volkanovski can knockout Makhachev early, and he just won’t have it like he did in the first fight once the fight enters the championship rounds.
Pick: Makhachev wins by late finish or decision
Khamzat Chimaev -280 vs. Kamaru Usman +230 (middleweight)
Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev have been linked as potential opponents since the summer of 2020, when Chimaev won three fights in 65 days by dominant finish. At that time Kamaru Usman was a dominant champion and a 2-1 favorite against Chimaev. Now, 3 years later, Chimaev is a nearly 3-1 favorite. What’s the difference now? For one, this fight is at middleweight, not the welterweight division, which was ruled by Usman for years. Secondly, Usman has lost his belt to Leon Edwards, and no longer appears to be his past dominant self. Thirdly, Usman is taking this fight on 10 days notice. The last point seems to be the most important in determining this betting line. However, is it really fair to say that Usman is a short notice opponent? Kamaru Usman has been thinking about Khamzat Chimaev for over three years now. Ever since Khamzat came on the scene, he was touted as the one who would take Usman’s belt. It’s fair to say that Usman has been mentally preparing for this fight since September 2020. How about physical preparation? In May, Usman visited UFC headquarters in Las Vegas to personally beg for a Chimaev fight. Additionally, Usman was rumored to be fighting Belal Muhammad. Since he began lobbying in May, Usman has reconnected with his old coach Henri Hooft, and has been training non-stop in Florida through fight camp-like conditions. In their face-off, Usman looked no larger than he’s ever looked, but Chimaev also looked no larger than he’s ever looked. While it can be argued Usman looked bad against Leon Edwards, Chimaev looked almost as bad in his fight against Gilbert Burns. So every single purported difference about this fight from when the line was initially set in September 2020 is not actually much different.
Let’s talk about the dynamics of the fight itself. Usman is perhaps the best defensive wrestler in UFC history. He has fought a murderers row of grapplers in the most grappling-heavy division in MMA and has a 97.8% takedown rate. Perhaps no wrestler he’s ever fought is as good, aggressive and strong as Chimaev, but if Chimaev struggled to hold Gilbert Burns down, he will surely struggle to hold Kamaru Usman down. Based on this, it appears we have another Kamaru Usman striking battle. Usman’s striking has done nothing but improve over the course of his UFC career, and he is not only one of the highest volume strikers, but also one of the most powerful. Chimaev also boasts high volume striking of his own, and incredible power that we know transfers to middleweight. Still, Usman’s performance against Gilbert Burns demonstrates that his striking is marginally better than Chimaev’s.
Usman will enter the cage on Saturday with a nothing-to-lose mentality against an opponent he’s been training for since 2020. Kamaru Usman has wanted to make this fight happen at every possible moment since Chimaev has come on the scene and is confident enough to take the fight on 10 days notice. Someone is getting knocked out in this fight, and that someone is Khamzat Chimaev.
Pick: Usman via KO
Magomed Ankalaev -350 vs. Johnny Walker +275 (light heavyweight)
Ankalaev is a heavy favorite here for good reason. Ankalaev is probably the most well rounded fighter at light heavyweight. He can strike, he can wrestle, and he has tremendous cardio. Ankalaev’s last fight exposed two things about him: 1) He will not wrestle until he is definitively losing on the feet. 2) He is open for leg kicks and check hooks. Johnny Walker is perhaps the fighter with the highest finishing potential at light heavyweight, and maybe the UFC. He is an athletic freak who has made noticeable improvements to his game. In a three round fight where cardio isn’t a huge factor, and knowing Ankalaev won’t wrestle unless he has to, it is possible Johnny Walker could win this fight. The difference in finishing potential is too large, and Ankalaev’s fight IQ is too demonstrably low to back him definitively. I think Johnny Walker can steal a round with a knockdown or even finish the fight.
Pick: Walker
Ikram Aliskerov -600 vs. Warlley Alves +430 (middleweight)
Aliskerov is a highly touted middleweight prospect. He’s a former combat sambo champion and fights at an extremely high level. Alves is taking this fight on short notice and he’s a welterweight, and a mediocre welterweight at that. Aliskerov’s initial opponent was Nassourdine Imavov. I think Aliskerov probably would’ve lost to Imavov, but against a short notice welterweight like Alves?
Pick: Aliskerov probably finishes the fight
Said Nurmagomedov -220 vs. Muin Gafurov +180 (bantamweight)
Said Nurmagomedov is a downgraded version of Zabit Magomedsharipov, a person he trained and grew up with. His striking is super high level and Gafurov just simply will not be able to keep up. Said is also better in wrestling.
Pick: Nurmagomedov will finish this fight
Muhammad Mokaev -450 vs. Tim Elliot +350 (flyweight)
In Mokaev’s first few fights in the UFC he showed undeniable wrestling talent and skill. In his latest fight against Jafel Filho, he showed some of the best toughness in the UFC. Mokaev suffered a knee bar late in the fight that nearly every fighter in the UFC would’ve tapped to. You could see on the broadcast that multiple ligaments in Mokaev’s knee tore apart. Yet Mokaev didn’t tap, not only did he not tap, he got out of the knee bar and got right back up to finish the fight. Mokaev has the skills you train years for and the toughness you can’t train for, he gets another finish here.
Pick: Mokaev via finish
Trevor Peek -155 vs. Mohammad Yahya +130 (lightweight)
Trevor Peek is probably the most exciting fighter you’ve never heard of. He’s an extremely wild brawler with an abundance of self-belief. He’s not very good though and is extremely open on his feet. If it was any good fighter I’d probably pick against him but Yahya is making his debut and he’s not very good. He took a 5-3 fighter on the UAE regional scene to a split decision and none of his fights are overly impressive. I think Peek wins an exciting fight here between two lower skill level brawlers.
Pick: Peek
Javid Basharat -550 vs. Victor Henry +400 (bantamweight)
Basharat has been given a layup win here and will get a win by knockout or submission.
Pick: Basharat by KO or submission
Sedriques Dumas -225 vs. Abu Azaitar +185 (middleweight)
Abu Azaitar has been away from the sport for 3 years and he hasn’t been injured. He’s 37 now. It’s pretty safe to say his focus hasn’t been on competing in MMA. Sedriques Dumas is an extremely raw prospect, but he seems to be way hungrier than Azaitar. The fighter who wants to win more will win on Saturday.
Pick: Dumas
Anshul Jubli -300 vs. Mike Breeden +240 (lightweight)
Jubli is going to enter this fight to a chorus of hate. The mostly Arab crowd signaled that they wouldn’t be too kind to him during the press conference so expect him to be loudly booed during this fight. That being said, Mike Breeden isn’t very good so Jubli will probably get it done here.
Pick: Jubli
Nathaniel Wood -340 vs. Muhammad Naimov +270 (featherweight)
Naimov’s win over Jamie Mullarkey is aging worse by the day, a fight he was losing until he got the finish. Wood is simply too short and too fast for Naimov to wrestle and counter strike effectively.
Pick: Decision win or late KO for Wood
Viktoriia Dudakova -550 vs. Jinh Yu Frey +400 (women’s strawweight)
Dudakova is a massive favorite here for good reason. She’s levels above Jinh Yu Frey.
Pick: Dominant decision or KO for Dudakova
Sharaputin Magomedov -250 vs. Bruno Silva +205 (middleweight)
Sharaputin Magomedov, also known as “the pirate” or “sharabullet”, is a Dagestani-Russian kickboxing prospect making his debut against Bruno Silva. He is best known for being blind in one eye, assaulting a man in a shopping mall for kissing his girlfriend in public and another assault at a jiu-jitsu tournament. Aside from this, Magomedov is really good. Bruno Silva is probably the most inconsistent fighter in the Middleweight division and got out-struck by Gerald Maerschaart most recently.
Pick: Magomedov by KO
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