UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 is a Mexican themed Fight Night Card created by the UFC to celebrate Mexican Independence Day. The card was rather hastily made by Dana White and thus a few of the important fights fell out. Notably Kelvin Gastelum vs Shavkat Rakhmanov and Chris Curtis vs Anthony Hernandez have both fallen out and none of those fighters will appear on the card. Several other smaller fighters have also fallen out and been rebooked with short notice opponents. The aim of this card is to spotlight Mexican UFC fighters, which means the UFC has booked Mexican fighters with favorable matchups and card positions. All betting odds are from FanDuel as of Friday at Noon and picks are bolded.
Josefine Knutsson (-750) vs. Marnic Mann (+490): Knutsson is an upcoming undefeated fighter training out of the All-Stars gym in Sweden. Mann trains out of Montana and recently was KOed via head kick by Bruna Brasil on Dana White’s Contender Series. Expect Knutsson to get a dominant decision or a KO here, Mann is very slow.
Charlie Campbell (-500) vs Alex Reyes (+360): Expect Campbell to pressure Reyes early. Reyes hasn’t fought in 6 years and will likely have poor distance control. Campbell is 28, Reyes is nearly 37. Expect Campbell to brawl and get a knockout here over the rusty Alex Reyes.
Tracy Cortez (-122) vs Jasmine Jasudavicius (+100): This fight is a toss-up. Cortez is on a considerable win streak, and Jasudavicius hasn’t lost since she fought Natalia Silva, which is looking like a better loss in hindsight considering how Silva has fought recent opponents. Neither woman has high finishing potential, so expect this fight to go to decision. I would favor the older and rangier Jasudavicius to win a kick-boxing fight and keep Cortez on the outside.
Edgar Chairez (-265) vs Daniel Lacerda (+210): Edgar Chairez recently fought Tatsuro Taira, where he was basically just a lamb for Taira to take down repeatedly the entire fight. Lacerda is on a four-fight losing streak. If Chairez were to ever win a fight at flyweight in the UFC it would be this one. Expect Chairez to keep it on the feet and beat up or KO Lacerda dominantly.
Roman Kopylov (-325) vs Josh Fremd (+250): Kopylov showed a different dimension to his striking in his recent win over Claudio Ribeiro, a fight where he got hurt a few times but eventually showed levels in striking. Fremd won’t pose any finishing threat on the feet to Kopylov. Since losing to Albert Duraev, Kopylov has moved to Dagestan and gone on a tear throughout the middleweight division. Expect him to neutralize any grappling from Fremd and find the KO.
Loopy Godinez (-480) vs Elise Reed (+350): Godinez gets an extremely favorable matchup here against Elise Reed. Expect her to dominate.
Fernando Padilla (-260) vs Kyle Nelson (+205): Padilla is a hot fighter, coming off his win against Julian Erosa. Kyle Nelson will not be able to match him anywhere, and this fight will likely be over quickly. Expect Padilla to find a finish here.
Daniel Zellhuber (-280) vs Christos Giagos (+220): Zellhuber is a young fighter, only 24, while Giagos is a veteran. Nonetheless, Giagos is mediocre everywhere and Zellhuber should be able to find a finish. Zellhuber has already had his loss to Trey Ogden where he looked inexperienced, hopefully he can build off that experience against the mediocre Giagos.
Raul Rosas Jr (-800) vs Terrence Mitchell (+520): Rosas showed in his last fight vs Christian Rodriguez that he only has one way to win, which is to overpower his opponents in the grappling with his strength. After that loss, the UFC has basically booked him with the weakest fighter on the roster. Rosas should be able to shove around Mitchell and bully him in the grappling, eventually finding the submission.
Kevin Holland (+122) vs Jack Della Maddalena (-150): Here we have two new additions to the welterweight division. Holland is coming off a win against Michael Chiesa where he thoroughly dominated him everywhere, and Maddalena is coming off a disappointing performance against Basil Hafez where he barely escaped and showed poor fight IQ. Holland has recently hired a wrestling coach and it showed in his last fight, where he submitted the accomplished Chiesa. If Holland can use his grappling in conjunction with his rangy powerful striking, he can beat Maddalena. Maddalena has way cleaner striking than Holland but showed poor fight IQ pulling Guillotine chokes repeatedly against the cage in his last fight. However, Holland has notoriously bad fight IQ as well. Ultimately, Holland has more ways he can win this fight, either by using his grappling or by finding a KO, so I will favor him here. Ultimately either or both fighters could show up to the cage without their brain so this fight could go to either. Expect an exciting fight.
Alexa Grasso (+142) vs Valentina Shevchenko (-176): Last fight showed that Grasso could hang with Shevchenko on the feet and that she had a massive advantage on the ground. I don’t think the circumstances of the fight will change much b what’s interesting is that Grasso was only able to find the submission in a fight she was losing because of an ill-advised spinning attack from Shevchenko. Assuming Shevchenko doesn’t throw any spinning attacks in this fight and Grasso hasn’t improved her wrestling, Shevchenko should be able to win a boring kick-boxing fight and regain her title.
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